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Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Helsingborg
Helsingborg
A. Saidi 78'
V. Davidsen 10' (OG)
D. Olsson 89'
5/15/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 8Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Degerfors IF44%
×Draw25%
Helsingborg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.55
Helsingborg
1.25

Degerfors IF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
Helsingborg
1.02

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
Helsingborg
2.04

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Helsingborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
69%
Degerfors IF or Helsingborg
75%
Draw or Helsingborg
56%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
22%
Helsingborg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
79%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
46%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
20%
Helsingborg 1+ goals
71%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
36%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
59%
Helsingborg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + Helsingborg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.55

Helsingborg attack 1.02 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
44%
level
25%
Helsingborg scores more
31%

Degerfors IF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
D. OlssonHelsingborgHelsingborg · F
7.7

Match Events

7'
Justin Salmon
10'
V. DavidsenOwn goal
35'
Christos Gravius
46'
D. Olsson← A. Gigović
46'
R. Jönsson← A. Al Hamlawi
48'
Casper Widell
63'
A. Carlén← R. Örqvist
71'
J. Bertilsson← D. Campos
71'
N. Đurđić← A. Rajamohan
75'
Erik Lindell
78'
A. Landgren← A. Ejupi
78'
A. Saidi
79'
R. Karjalainen← L. Lingman
83'
D. Vukojević← A. Saidi
88'
Andreas Landgren
89'
D. Olsson↳ A. van den Hurk

Possession

40%Degerfors

Shots

8Degerfors

Pass accuracy

47%Degerfors

Statistics

DegerforsHelsingborg
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots21
7Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots21
3On Target3
5Off Target13
0Blocked5
6Inside Box14
2Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
334Total Passes502
224Accurate Passes386
67%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Helsingborg

Degerfors IF beat Helsingborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on May 15, 2022.

Goals: V. Davidsen (10' o.g.), A. Saidi (78'), D. Olsson (89').

Helsingborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.