Degerfors IF 2–1 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Helsingborg

G. Lindgren 60', 29' (pen)

N. Moro 41' (OG)

4/23/2024

Superettan · Round 4Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Degerfors IF54%

×Draw23%

Helsingborg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.16

Degerfors IF

1.86

Helsingborg

1.16

Degerfors IF creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

2.02

creates per match

1.31

1.01

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Degerfors IF

2.02

Helsingborg

1.31

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.01

Helsingborg

1.71

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.15scores more

Helsingborg-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

76%

Degerfors IF or Helsingborg

77%

Draw or Helsingborg

46%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

30%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

84%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

55%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

28%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

69%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

32%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

69%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.01 · 6 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 2.02 + Helsingborg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Helsingborg attack 1.31 + Degerfors IF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

54%

level

23%

Helsingborg scores more

24%

Degerfors IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Lindgren

Degerfors IF · F

8.3

Match Events

29'

G. LindgrenPenalty

31'

William Westerlund

41'

N. MoroOwn goal

43'

Sumar Almadjed

60'

G. Lindgren

64'

A. Fisic← Pashang Abdulla

65'

Johannes Robert Benjamin Örn

75'

D. Olsson← W. Westerlund

75'

D. Bergman← B. Örn

75'

A. Hellborg← S. Almadjed

79'

Gustav Lindgren

81'

L. Kassi← A. Demirol

83'

Amar Muhsin← B. Acquah

86'

A. Svanbäck← J. Birkfeldt

87'

Daniel Bergman

90'

Abdelkarim Chaouche

90+2'

D. Vukojević← G. Lindgren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DegerforsHelsingborg

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots7

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.65

7Corners6

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

3On Target0

4Off Target4

6Blocked2

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

348Total Passes383

278Accurate Passes306

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1