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Hellas Verona vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ascoli
Ascoli
G. Pazzini 36'
L. Rosseti 10'
3/16/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 29Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hellas Verona47%
×Draw25%
Ascoli28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.54
Ascoli
1.12

Hellas Verona creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.60
Ascoli
1.04

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.20
Ascoli
1.49

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
72%
Hellas Verona or Ascoli
75%
Draw or Ascoli
53%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
24%
Ascoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
79%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
45%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
20%
Ascoli 1+ goals
67%
Ascoli 2+ goals
31%
Ascoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
63%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.60 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Hellas Verona defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
47%
level
25%
Ascoli scores more
28%

Hellas Verona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Rosseti↳ N. Ninković
19'
Samuel Gustafson
26'
Luca Marrone
31'
G. Beretta← L. Rosseti
36'
G. Pazzini↳ Lee Seung-Woo
39'
Bright Addae
45'
Nikola Ninković
58'
Giacomo Beretta
65'
A. Di Gaudio← J. Balkovec
75'
S. Di Carmine← K. Laribi
75'
M. Cavion← M. Troiano
86'
Seung-Woo Lee
87'
A. Danzi← G. Pazzini
90'
Antonio Di Gaudio
90'
C. Andreoni← L. Laverone

Possession

62%Hellas

Shots

8Hellas

Statistics

HellasAscoli
Overview
62%Possession38%
8Total Shots6
8Corners3
21Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots6
3On Target5
5Off Target1
Passing
62%Possession38%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
21Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards–
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Ascoli

Hellas Verona and Ascoli drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 16, 2019.

Goals: L. Rosseti (10'), G. Pazzini (36').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.