Hellas Verona 0–0 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Hellas Verona

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ascoli

3/13/2017

Serie B · Round 30Marc Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hellas Verona47%

×Draw25%

Ascoli28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Hellas Verona

1.56

Ascoli

1.14

Hellas Verona creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 119 away

1.62

creates per match

1.04

1.24

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Hellas Verona

1.62

Ascoli

1.04

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.24

Ascoli

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

72%

Hellas Verona or Ascoli

75%

Draw or Ascoli

53%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

24%

Ascoli wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

79%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

46%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

21%

Ascoli 1+ goals

68%

Ascoli 2+ goals

32%

Ascoli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

63%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.62 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Hellas Verona defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

47%

level

25%

Ascoli scores more

28%

Hellas Verona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Francesco Cassata

61'

Daniele Mignanelli

61'

R. Orsolini← A. Bentivegna

64'

S. Ganz← P. Cappelluzzo

66'

M. Zaccagni← F. Zuculini

72'

73'

75'

82'

84'

D. Luppi← L. Siligardi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HellasAscoli

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots3

11Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots3

7On Target1

7Off Target2

Passing

66%Possession34%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0