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Ascoli vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
M. Cavion 85'
10/30/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 10Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ascoli39%
×Draw28%
Hellas Verona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.22
Hellas Verona
1.08

Ascoli creates 13% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.16
Hellas Verona
1.06

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Hellas Verona
1.28

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
68%
Ascoli or Hellas Verona
72%
Draw or Hellas Verona
61%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
17%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
70%
Ascoli 2+ goals
34%
Ascoli 3+ goals
12%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
66%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
29%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
55%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.09 · 118 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Hellas Verona defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ascoli scores more
39%
level
28%
Hellas Verona scores more
32%

Ascoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Nikola Ninković
26'
Jure Balkovec
56'
G. Beretta← M. Ngombo
63'
M. Zaccagni← Samuel Gustafson
68'
M. Cavion← L. Rosseti
74'
Ryder Matos← K. Laribi
76'
Michele Cavion
81'
L. Laverone← D. Frattesi
82'
Lee Seung-Woo← A. Ragusa
84'
Bright Addae
85'
M. Cavion

Possession

48%Ascoli

Shots

7Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliHellas
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots4
6Corners5
20Fouls22
Shots
7Total Shots4
3On Target0
4Off Target4
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls22
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides9

Serie B: Ascoli 1–0 Hellas Verona

Ascoli beat Hellas Verona 1-0 in Serie B on October 30, 2018.

Goals: M. Cavion (85').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (52%) and registered 4 shots to 7.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.