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Heimstetten vs Garching — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Garching
Garching
9/1/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 9Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Heimstetten62%
×Draw19%
Garching19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
2.42
Garching
1.27

Heimstetten creates 91% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
2.63
Garching
1.18

allows per match

Heimstetten
1.37
Garching
2.21

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
81%
Heimstetten or Garching
81%
Draw or Garching
38%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
41%
Garching wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
91%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
69%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
43%
Garching 1+ goals
72%
Garching 2+ goals
36%
Garching 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
77%
Garching (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

Garching away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 2.63 + Garching defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.42

Garching attack 1.18 + Heimstetten defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Heimstetten scores more
62%
level
19%
Garching scores more
19%

Heimstetten at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heimstetten vs Garching

Heimstetten beat Garching 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.