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Garching vs Heimstetten — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Garching
Garching
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heimstetten
Heimstetten
3/24/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Garching29%
×Draw23%
Heimstetten47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.35
Heimstetten
1.77

Heimstetten creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Garching
0.94
Heimstetten
1.57

allows per match

Garching
1.97
Heimstetten
1.76

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Heimstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Heimstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Garching or draw
53%
Garching or Heimstetten
77%
Draw or Heimstetten
71%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
13%
Heimstetten wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
74%
Garching 2+ goals
39%
Garching 3+ goals
15%
Heimstetten 1+ goals
83%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
53%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
38%
Heimstetten (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

Heimstetten away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.94 + Heimstetten defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Heimstetten attack 1.57 + Garching defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Garching scores more
29%
level
23%
Heimstetten scores more
47%

Heimstetten at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Garching 0–2 Heimstetten

Heimstetten beat Garching 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.