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Heimstetten vs Garching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Garching
Garching
9/6/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 10Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Heimstetten51%
×Draw20%
Garching29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
2.28
Garching
1.68

Heimstetten creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 12 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
1.73
Garching
1.33

allows per match

Heimstetten
2.02
Garching
2.83

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
71%
Heimstetten or Garching
80%
Draw or Garching
49%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
31%
Garching wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
90%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
66%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
39%
Garching 1+ goals
81%
Garching 2+ goals
50%
Garching 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
64%
Garching (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 1.73 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.28

Garching attack 1.33 + Heimstetten defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Heimstetten scores more
51%
level
20%
Garching scores more
29%

Heimstetten at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Heimstetten 3–4 Garching

Garching beat Heimstetten 4-3 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 6, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.