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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
6/15/2024League OneLeague One · Round 14Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring45%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Baoyun27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.35
Guangxi Baoyun
0.97

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 39% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 63 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.45
Guangxi Baoyun
0.86

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Guangxi Baoyun
1.25

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
73%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Guangxi Baoyun
72%
Draw or Guangxi Baoyun
55%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
21%
Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
74%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
39%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
15%
Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
62%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
25%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
63%
Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
45%
level
28%
Guangxi Baoyun scores more
27%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Guangxi Baoyun

Guangxi Baoyun beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-1 in League One on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.