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Guangxi Baoyun vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Guangxi Baoyun
Guangxi Baoyun
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
10/26/2024League OneLeague One · Round 29Pingguo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun44%
×Draw27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Baoyun
1.36
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.06

Guangxi Baoyun creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 124 away

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.32
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun
1.00
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw
71%
Guangxi Baoyun or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
73%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
56%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+
20%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals
74%
Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals
39%
Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals
16%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
65%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)
60%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.32 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more
44%
level
27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
29%

Guangxi Baoyun at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guangxi Baoyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangxi Baoyun 1–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Guangxi Baoyun beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1-0 in League One on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Pingguo Stadium in Pingguo.