Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Guangxi Baoyun — League One 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 63+ matches
Heilongjiang Lava Spring44%
Guangxi Baoyun28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 33% more chances
Season form · 95 home / 63 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 95 matches
Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.44 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34
Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.86 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Kunshan
Qingdao Jonoon
Nantong Zhiyun
Hebei Kungfu
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Suzhou Dongwu
Sichuan Jiuniu
Nanjing City
Qingdao Youth IslandHeilongjiang Lava SpringGuangxi Baoyun
Shenyang Urban
Shanghai Jiading
Jiangxi Liansheng
Zibo Cuju
Beijing Baxy
Xinjiang Tianshan
BITIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Heilongjiang Lava Spring host Guangxi Baoyun on Sunday, 17 September 2023 at 07:30. The match is part of the League One 2020/2021 season.
League One: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1–1 Guangxi Baoyun
Heilongjiang Lava Spring and Guangxi Baoyun drew 1-1 in League One on September 17, 2023.
Goals: E. Lobjanidze (25'), Matt Orr (45').
The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.