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Heerenveen vs Almere City FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Heerenveen
Heerenveen
FT
2 – 4
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Heerenveen56%
×Draw19%
Almere City FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen
2.55
Almere City FC
1.68

Heerenveen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Heerenveen
2.86
Almere City FC
1.50

allows per match

Heerenveen
1.86
Almere City FC
2.25

finishing

Heerenveen+0.00on par
Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw
75%
Heerenveen or Almere City FC
81%
Draw or Almere City FC
44%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+
36%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals
92%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
72%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
46%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
81%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
50%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)
69%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 2.86 + Almere City FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.55

Almere City FC attack 1.50 + Heerenveen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heerenveen scores more
56%
level
19%
Almere City FC scores more
25%

Heerenveen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Heerenveen 2–4 Almere City FC

Almere City FC beat Heerenveen 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.