Heerenveen 3–0 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Heerenveen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Almere City FC

12/1/2023

Eredivisie · Round 14Abe Lenstra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Heerenveen48%

×Draw25%

Almere City FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeerenveenExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

Heerenveen

1.58

Almere City FC

1.13

Heerenveen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 37 away

1.53

creates per match

0.76

1.50

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Heerenveen

1.53

Almere City FC

0.76

allows per match

Heerenveen

1.50

Almere City FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heerenveen+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw

73%

Heerenveen or Almere City FC

75%

Draw or Almere City FC

52%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+

25%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals

79%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

47%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

21%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

68%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

31%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

64%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 135 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 1.53 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + Heerenveen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heerenveen scores more

48%

level

25%

Almere City FC scores more

27%

Heerenveen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff