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Almere City FC vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
12/21/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 17Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC33%
×Draw24%
Heerenveen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.41
Heerenveen
1.64

Heerenveen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 136 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
0.92
Heerenveen
1.34

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.94
Heerenveen
1.90

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
Heerenveen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Heerenveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
57%
Almere City FC or Heerenveen
76%
Draw or Heerenveen
67%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
15%
Heerenveen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
76%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
41%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
17%
Heerenveen 1+ goals
81%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
49%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
43%
Heerenveen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.90 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + Heerenveen defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.41

Heerenveen attack 1.34 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Almere City FC scores more
33%
level
24%
Heerenveen scores more
43%

Heerenveen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs Heerenveen

Almere City FC beat Heerenveen 3-0 in Eredivisie on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.