Hebar 1918 1–3 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA 1948

12/2/2023

First League · Round 19Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191827%

×Draw28%

CSKA 194845%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.31

Hebar 1918

0.96

CSKA 1948

1.31

CSKA 1948 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 105 away

0.83

creates per match

1.22

1.40

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Hebar 1918

0.83

CSKA 1948

1.22

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.40

CSKA 1948

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

55%

Hebar 1918 or CSKA 1948

72%

Draw or CSKA 1948

73%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

10%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

62%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

25%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

7%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

73%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

38%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

38%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

27%

level

28%

CSKA 1948 scores more

45%

CSKA 1948 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff