CSKA 1948 vs Hebar 1918 — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 54+ matches
CSKA 194853%
Hebar 191822%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA 1948 creates 71% more chances
Season form · 104 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA 1948 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches
Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66
Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
CSKA 1948 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
CSKA 1948 host Hebar 1918 on Wednesday, 7 May 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
First League: CSKA 1948 0–0 Hebar 1918
CSKA 1948 and Hebar 1918 drew 0-0 in First League on May 7, 2025.
The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.