CSKA 1948 1–1 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hebar 1918

Pedrinho 46'

A. Kabov 81'

8/7/2023

First League · Round 4Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CSKA 194853%

×Draw24%

Hebar 191822%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.97

CSKA 1948

1.66

Hebar 1918

0.97

CSKA 1948 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 54 away

1.51

creates per match

0.91

1.03

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.51

Hebar 1918

0.91

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.03

Hebar 1918

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

78%

CSKA 1948 or Hebar 1918

76%

Draw or Hebar 1918

47%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

29%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

81%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

49%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

23%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

62%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

25%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

71%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

53%

level

24%

Hebar 1918 scores more

22%

CSKA 1948 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

21'

21'

24'

46'

V. Kjartansson← R. Wankewai

46'

I. Chochev← R. Daskalov

46'

João Cesco← G. Nikolov

46'

Pedrinho

63'

Róbert Mazáň

69'

S. Tisovski← O. Hamdiev

70'

B. Karagaren← Pedrinho

70'

R. Kirilov← A. Vutov

81'

P. Umarbayev← G. Rusev

81'

A. Kabov

84'

Parvizdzhon Umarbaev

85'

A. Isuf← C. Ohene

90+4'

Matvei Igonen

90+2'

B. Bozhurkin← A. Kabov

90+2'

N. Penev← A. Bastunov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSKAHebar

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots5

5Corners5

16Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots5

4On Target4

6Off Target1

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1