Havelse 0–4 Eintracht Braunschweig: Result & Stats

Havelse

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Eintracht Braunschweig

S. Müller 88'

L. Lauberbach 69'

M. Schultz 66'

J. Consbruch 25'

10/24/2021

League #80 · Round 13HDI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Havelse41%

×Draw25%

Eintracht Braunschweig34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavelseExpected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.30

Havelse

1.45

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.30

Havelse creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.60

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Havelse

1.40

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.00

allows per match

Havelse

1.60

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havelse+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havelse ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Havelse or draw

66%

Havelse or Eintracht Braunschweig

75%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

59%

Winning margin

Havelse wins by 2+

19%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Havelse 1+ goals

77%

Havelse 2+ goals

42%

Havelse 3+ goals

18%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

73%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

37%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Havelse (draw refunded)

55%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havelse at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havelse attack 1.40 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.00 + Havelse defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Havelse scores more

41%

level

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

34%

Havelse at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Havelse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

39'

51'

62'

65'

S. Müller← E. Peña Zauner

65'

M. Kobylański← M. Multhaup

66'

M. Schultz↳ M. Kobylański

69'

L. Lauberbach↳ R. Krauße

73'

Y. Otto← R. Krauße

77'

L. Meyer← O. Daedlow

77'

N. Plume← L. Damer

77'

D. Cicek← F. Lakenmacher

81'

Michael Schultz

86'

P. Strompf← M. Schultz

86'

L. Görlich← D. Wiebe

88'

S. Müller↳ B. Henning

89'

D. Kina← K. Froese

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HavelseEintracht

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots14

4Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target9

5Off Target5

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1