Haugesund 2–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stromsgodset

I. Wadji 60'

K. Velde 26'

F. Friday 69'

7/28/2021

Eliteserien · Round 2Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund44%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.34

Haugesund

1.61

Stromsgodset

1.34

Haugesund creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

1.14

creates per match

1.06

1.62

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Stromsgodset

2.09

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Stromsgodset+0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

68%

Haugesund or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

56%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

22%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

80%

Haugesund 2+ goals

48%

Haugesund 3+ goals

22%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

74%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

39%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

58%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Stromsgodset defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haugesund scores more

44%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

32%

Haugesund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

B. Tiedemann

Haugesund · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

K. Velde↳ S. Liseth

52'

Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen

60'

I. Wadji

69'

F. Friday↳ H. Stengel

73'

K. Tokstad← H. Stenevik

73'

N. Mickelson← M. Maigaard

83'

M. Sande← N. Sandberg

85'

Kristoffer Tokstad

87'

K. Krasniqi← J. Parr

89'

A. Ndour← I. Wadji

89'

F. Knudsen← S. Liseth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundStromsgodset

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots8

2Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

6Total Shots8

4On Target2

2Off Target3

0Blocked3

2Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

384Total Passes422

285Accurate Passes308

74%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1