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Haugesund vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
CANC
16:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
4/14/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 3Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund44%
×Draw24%
Stromsgodset32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.61
Stromsgodset
1.34

Haugesund creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.14
Stromsgodset
1.06

allows per match

Haugesund
1.62
Stromsgodset
2.09

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less
Stromsgodset+0.05on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
68%
Haugesund or Stromsgodset
76%
Draw or Stromsgodset
56%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
22%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
80%
Haugesund 2+ goals
48%
Haugesund 3+ goals
22%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
74%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
39%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
58%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Stromsgodset defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haugesund scores more
44%
level
24%
Stromsgodset scores more
32%

Haugesund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund vs Stromsgodset — Match Preview

Haugesund face Stromsgodset on April 14, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Haugesund host Stromsgodset at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.