Haugesund 2–1 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rosenborg

M. Christensen 55'

C. Zafeiris 29'

E. Reitan 19'

9/11/2022

Eliteserien · Round 22Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Haugesund38%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.49

Haugesund

1.48

Rosenborg

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.35

1.62

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Rosenborg

1.35

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Rosenborg

1.81

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.26scores less

Rosenborg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

62%

Haugesund or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

18%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

43%

Haugesund 3+ goals

19%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

77%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

44%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

50%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.81 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rosenborg attack 1.35 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more

38%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

38%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Krygård

Haugesund · D

7.6

Match Events

19'

E. Reitan↳ L. Cornic

29'

C. Zafeiris↳ K. Krygård

55'

M. Christensen↳ J. Eskesen

62'

Mads Berg Sande

65'

M. Broholm← V. Jensen

70'

B. Njie← M. Sande

70'

M. Samuelsen← A. Søderlund

82'

J. Augustinsson← R. Giampaoli

82'

P. Skjelbred← E. Tagseth

82'

A. Pereira← O. Skarsem

83'

Bruno Leite← M. Christensen

84'

S. Tounekti← J. Eskesen

89'

H. Røsten← J. Augustinsson

90+8'

U. Fredriksen← P. Therkildsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundRosenborg

Overview

47%Possession53%

4Total Shots13

4Corners5

12Fouls6

Shots

4Total Shots13

3On Target3

0Off Target4

1Blocked6

3Inside Box4

1Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

417Total Passes468

329Accurate Passes359

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2