Haugesund 1–0 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosenborg

N. Sandberg 9' (pen)

7/26/2020

Eliteserien · Round 10Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund38%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.49

Haugesund

1.48

Rosenborg

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.35

1.62

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Rosenborg

1.35

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Rosenborg

1.81

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Rosenborg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

62%

Haugesund or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

62%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

18%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

77%

Haugesund 2+ goals

43%

Haugesund 3+ goals

19%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

77%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

44%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

50%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.81 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rosenborg attack 1.35 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haugesund scores more

38%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

38%

Haugesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Sandvik

Haugesund · G

8.0

Match Events

9'

N. SandbergPenalty

22'

58'

63'

65'

65'

D. Islamović← P. Helland

68'

E. Tagseth← A. Konradsen

69'

Kristoffer Zachariassen

79'

K. Krygård← I. Wadji

82'

F. Brattbakk← G. Åsen

89'

Dino Islamović

89'

J. Nilsen← N. Sandberg

90'

Tore Reginiussen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundRosenborg

Overview

27%Possession73%

13Total Shots13

6Corners11

14Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

27%Possession73%

219Total Passes584

153Accurate Passes494

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards5

4Offsides2