Hartlepool 1–2 Colchester: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

J. Sterry 82'

J. Sterry 87' (OG)

F. Kelleher 5'

1/28/2023

League Two · Round 29The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool40%

×Draw28%

Colchester33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Hartlepool

1.27

Colchester

1.13

Hartlepool creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 159 away

1.20

creates per match

0.96

1.30

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

67%

Hartlepool or Colchester

72%

Draw or Colchester

60%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

18%

Colchester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

72%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

36%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

14%

Colchester 1+ goals

68%

Colchester 2+ goals

31%

Colchester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

55%

Colchester (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Colchester attack 0.96 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartlepool scores more

40%

level

28%

Colchester scores more

33%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Kelleher

Colchester · D

8.2

Match Events

5'

F. Kelleher↳ S. Tovide

13'

Edon Pruti

23'

M. Ndjoli← J. Hamilton

36'

M. Sylla← P. Hartley

54'

M. Jay← S. Tovide

65'

J. Akinde← N. Chilvers

75'

W. McDonald← M. Dolan

76'

79'

82'

83'

84'

A. Newby← A. Read

87'

J. SterryOwn goal

90+1'

Junior Tchamadeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolColchester

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots10

7Corners1

12Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target8

5Off Target1

6Blocked1

8Inside Box9

8Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

499Total Passes293

372Accurate Passes167

75%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2