Colchester 1–1 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hartlepool

B. Lubala 90+4'

W. McDonald 29'

9/3/2022

League Two · Round 7JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Colchester48%

×Draw25%

Hartlepool26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

Colchester

1.55

Hartlepool

1.08

Colchester creates 44% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 81 away

1.32

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

74%

Colchester or Hartlepool

75%

Draw or Hartlepool

52%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

25%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

79%

Colchester 2+ goals

46%

Colchester 3+ goals

20%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

66%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

29%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

65%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colchester scores more

48%

level

25%

Hartlepool scores more

26%

Colchester at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

B. Lubala

Colchester · F

7.5

Match Events

8'

Marley Marshall

14'

M. Sylla← N. Featherstone

29'

W. McDonald↳ R. Tumilty

30'

F. Sears← C. Skuse

46'

B. Lubala← M. Miranda

54'

Reghan Tumilty

65'

C. Oduor← J. Hamilton

68'

F. Nouble← K. Appiah

68'

D. Chesters← A. Newby

71'

Matthew Longstaff

72'

Tom Crawford

74'

J. Hastie← W. McDonald

74'

M. Shelton← T. Crawford

83'

Brody Paterson

86'

C. Coxe← J. Tchamadeu

90+4'

B. Lubala↳ C. Coxe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterHartlepool

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots7

8Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target1

6Off Target6

2Blocked0

12Inside Box6

1Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

482Total Passes293

370Accurate Passes186

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0