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Hartlepool vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
C. Cooper 53'
J. Akinde 9'
5/7/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 46The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool40%
×Draw28%
Colchester33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.27
Colchester
1.13

Hartlepool creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 159 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Colchester
0.96

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Colchester
1.33

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
67%
Hartlepool or Colchester
72%
Draw or Colchester
60%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
18%
Colchester wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
72%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
36%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
14%
Colchester 1+ goals
68%
Colchester 2+ goals
31%
Colchester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
55%
Colchester (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Colchester attack 0.96 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartlepool scores more
40%
level
28%
Colchester scores more
33%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
S. HornbyColchesterColchester · G
8.3

Match Events

9'
J. Akinde↳ F. Sears
40'
R. Ogle← J. Sterry
46'
C. Cooper← A. Judge
53'
C. Cooper↳ F. Sears
61'
K. Bennett← B. Sarpong-Wiredu
67'
M. Carver← O. Bogle
71'
B. Ihionvien← J. Akinde
73'
M. Smith← G. Liddle
79'
Tommy Smith
90+2'
Jake Hull

Possession

63%Hartlepool

Shots

19Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

55%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolColchester
Overview
63%Possession37%
19Total Shots10
7Corners3
15Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots10
7On Target7
7Off Target0
5Blocked3
17Inside Box6
2Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
474Total Passes284
369Accurate Passes181
78%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

League Two: Hartlepool 0–2 Colchester

Colchester beat Hartlepool 2-0 in League Two on May 7, 2022.

Goals: J. Akinde (9'), C. Cooper (53').

Hartlepool controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.