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Harstad vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Harstad
Harstad
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Fløya
Fløya
K. W. Iversen 30'
M. Samuelsen 2'
T. J. Isaksen 90'
N. Botchway 63', 37'
T. Whalen 16', 8'
6/14/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 10Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Harstad37%
×Draw19%
Fløya44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harstad
2.42
Fløya
2.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Harstad
2.08
Fløya
2.38

allows per match

Harstad
2.85
Fløya
2.77

finishing

Harstad+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harstad ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Harstad or draw
56%
Harstad or Fløya
81%
Draw or Fløya
63%

Winning margin

Harstad wins by 2+
21%
Fløya wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Harstad 1+ goals
91%
Harstad 2+ goals
69%
Harstad 3+ goals
43%
Fløya 1+ goals
93%
Fløya 2+ goals
73%
Fløya 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Harstad (draw refunded)
46%
Fløya (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harstad at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harstad attack 2.08 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fløya attack 2.38 + Harstad defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Harstad scores more
37%
level
19%
Fløya scores more
44%

Fløya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Samuelsen
8'
T. Whalen
16'
T. Whalen
30'
K. W. Iversen
37'
N. Botchway
63'
N. Botchway
90'
T. J. Isaksen
Harstad
Fløya
R. Olsen
Manager: R. Olsen
G. Olsen
Manager: G. Olsen

3. Division - Girone 1: Harstad 2–5 Fløya

Fløya beat Harstad 5-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Samuelsen (2'), T. Whalen (8', 16'), K. W. Iversen (30'), N. Botchway (37', 63'), T. J. Isaksen (90').

The match was played at Harstad Stadion in Harstad.