Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fløya vs Harstad — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Fløya
Fløya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Harstad
Harstad
Y. Johansen 71'
M. A. Berg 40'
G. Andersen 3'
5/2/20263. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fløya61%
×Draw20%
Harstad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
2.25
Harstad
1.21

Fløya creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fløya
2.50
Harstad
1.43

allows per match

Fløya
1.00
Harstad
2.00

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Harstad+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Harstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
80%
Fløya or Harstad
80%
Draw or Harstad
39%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
38%
Harstad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
89%
Fløya 2+ goals
65%
Fløya 3+ goals
39%
Harstad 1+ goals
70%
Harstad 2+ goals
34%
Harstad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
75%
Harstad (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Harstad away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.50 + Harstad defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Harstad attack 1.43 + Fløya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fløya scores more
61%
level
20%
Harstad scores more
20%

Fløya at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
G. Andersen
40'
M. A. Berg
71'
Y. Johansen
Fløya
Harstad
G. Olsen
Manager: G. Olsen
R. Olsen
Manager: R. Olsen

Match Recap: Fløya vs Harstad

Fløya beat Harstad 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 2, 2026.

Goals: G. Andersen (3'), M. A. Berg (40'), Y. Johansen (71').