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Harstad vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Harstad
Harstad
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Fløya
Fløya
N. Johansen 64'
F. Lindquist 40'
S. Fitzgerald 88'
L. Beck-Hansen 74', 9'
F. Morkved 45' (pen)
5/20/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 7Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Harstad37%
×Draw21%
Fløya42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harstad
2.00
Fløya
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

creates per match

Harstad
2.46
Fløya
2.00

allows per match

Harstad
2.23
Fløya
1.54

finishing

Harstad+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harstad ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Harstad or draw
58%
Harstad or Fløya
79%
Draw or Fløya
63%

Winning margin

Harstad wins by 2+
20%
Fløya wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Harstad 1+ goals
86%
Harstad 2+ goals
59%
Harstad 3+ goals
32%
Fløya 1+ goals
88%
Fløya 2+ goals
62%
Fløya 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Harstad (draw refunded)
47%
Fløya (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harstad at home — creates 2.46, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harstad attack 2.46 + Fløya defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fløya attack 2.00 + Harstad defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Harstad scores more
37%
level
21%
Fløya scores more
42%

Fløya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Beck-Hansen
40'
F. Lindquist
45'
F. MorkvedPenalty
64'
N. Johansen
74'
L. Beck-Hansen
88'
S. Fitzgerald

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Harstad vs Fløya

Fløya beat Harstad 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 20, 2024.

Goals: L. Beck-Hansen (9', 74'), F. Lindquist (40'), F. Morkved (45' pen), N. Johansen (64'), S. Fitzgerald (88').

The match was played at Harstad Stadion in Harstad.