Harrogate Town 3–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Doncaster

A. Odoh 74'

J. Daly 66'

S. Folarin 17'

T. Rowe 19'

1/6/2024

League Two · Round 27EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Harrogate Town34%

×Draw26%

Doncaster40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.44

Harrogate Town

1.30

Doncaster

1.44

Doncaster creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

1.38

1.50

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.18

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.50

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

60%

Harrogate Town or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

66%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

15%

Doncaster wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

73%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

37%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

14%

Doncaster 1+ goals

76%

Doncaster 2+ goals

42%

Doncaster 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

46%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.18 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Harrogate Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

34%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

40%

Doncaster at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Odoh

Harrogate Town · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

19'

38'

46'

66'

72'

G. Broadbent← H. Biggins

72'

C. Carty← M. Faal

72'

T. Nixon← J. Sterry

74'

A. Odoh

77'

Thomas Nixon

81'

J. Falkingham← D. Cornelius

81'

L. Sutton← S. Dooley

85'

Joseph Olowu

90+4'

W. Burrell← A. Odoh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateDoncaster

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots17

3Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots17

4On Target2

6Off Target6

1Blocked9

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

393Total Passes456

278Accurate Passes345

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2