Doncaster 1–0 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Harrogate Town

H. Clifton 86'

1/25/2025

League Two · Round 28Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Doncaster45%

×Draw26%

Harrogate Town29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.10

Doncaster

1.43

Harrogate Town

1.10

Doncaster creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 93 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Harrogate Town

1.02

allows per match

Doncaster

1.19

Harrogate Town

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

71%

Doncaster or Harrogate Town

74%

Draw or Harrogate Town

55%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

22%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

76%

Doncaster 2+ goals

42%

Doncaster 3+ goals

17%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

67%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

30%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

61%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.19 · 73 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Harrogate Town defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Harrogate Town attack 1.02 + Doncaster defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Doncaster scores more

45%

level

26%

Harrogate Town scores more

29%

Doncaster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

T. Sharman-Lowe

Doncaster · G

7.9

Match Events

65'

H. Clifton← J. Sbarra

66'

J. Muldoon← O. Sanderson

66'

D. Cornelius← J. Daly

72'

R. Street← E. Ennis

72'

B. Sharp← J. Ironside

74'

Jasper Moon

81'

J. Gibson← C. Crew

84'

James Belshaw

86'

H. Clifton↳ J. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterHarrogate

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots10

5Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

2On Target3

4Off Target5

6Blocked2

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

380Total Passes272

241Accurate Passes144

63%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2