Doncaster 0–1 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Harrogate Town

J. Muldoon 66' (pen)

8/5/2023

League Two · Round 1Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Doncaster45%

×Draw26%

Harrogate Town29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.10

Doncaster

1.43

Harrogate Town

1.10

Doncaster creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 93 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Harrogate Town

1.02

allows per match

Doncaster

1.19

Harrogate Town

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

71%

Doncaster or Harrogate Town

74%

Draw or Harrogate Town

55%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

22%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

76%

Doncaster 2+ goals

42%

Doncaster 3+ goals

17%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

67%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

30%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

61%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.19 · 73 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Harrogate Town defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Harrogate Town attack 1.02 + Doncaster defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Doncaster scores more

45%

level

26%

Harrogate Town scores more

29%

Doncaster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

I. Lawlor

Doncaster · G

8.0

Match Events

53'

Sam Folarin

57'

J. Mattock← R. McDonald

65'

Ian Lawlor

66'

J. MuldoonPenalty

68'

T. Roberts← T. Rowe

68'

D. Sotona← J. Taylor

68'

M. Daly← S. Folarin

72'

G. Miller← J. Ironside

75'

Liam Gibson

85'

H. Biggins← L. Molyneux

88'

L. Sutton← L. Gibson

89'

W. Burrell← D. Cornelius

90+8'

Abraham Odoh

90+7'

Anthony O'Connor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterHarrogate

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots7

6Corners5

7Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots7

3On Target6

4Off Target1

5Blocked0

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

455Total Passes368

277Accurate Passes217

61%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls20

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1