Harrogate Town 2–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cambridge United

E. Sutton 25'

B. Morris 8'

L. Bennett 29'

2/7/2026

League Two · Round 31Exercise Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Harrogate Town26%

×Draw25%

Cambridge United49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.63

Harrogate Town

1.12

Cambridge United

1.63

Cambridge United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

1.73

1.53

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Cambridge United

1.73

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Cambridge United

1.04

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Cambridge United-0.48scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

51%

Harrogate Town or Cambridge United

75%

Draw or Cambridge United

74%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

10%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

67%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

31%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

10%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

80%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

48%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

35%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Cambridge United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cambridge United attack 1.73 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

26%

level

25%

Cambridge United scores more

49%

Cambridge United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

B. Morris

Harrogate Town · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

25'

29'

30'

36'

46'

B. Purrington← J. Gibbons

46'

S. Lavery← J. Brophy

66'

G. Thomson← E. Taylor

66'

67'

67'

74'

75'

S. McLoughlin← P. Mpanzu

84'

J. Muldoon← E. Acquah

87'

Henry Gray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateCambridge

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots14

1.60Expected Goals (xG)1.30

1Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots14

6On Target1

2Off Target7

2Blocked6

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

340Total Passes500

221Accurate Passes357

65%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

4Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0