Harrogate Town 5–4 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

5 – 4

HT: 4 – 2

Cambridge United

K. Lokko 84'

B. Kiernan 32', 20' (pen), 9'

M. Beck 13'

P. Mullin 74' (pen), 58'

L. Hannant 29'

W. Hoolahan 26'

4/30/2021

League Two · Round 45CNG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town28%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.51

Harrogate Town

1.10

Cambridge United

1.51

Cambridge United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.49

1.53

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Cambridge United

1.49

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Cambridge United

1.01

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Cambridge United-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

53%

Harrogate Town or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

72%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

11%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

67%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

30%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

10%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

78%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

44%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

37%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Cambridge United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

28%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

47%

Cambridge United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Kiernan

Harrogate Town · F

9.3

Match Events

9'

B. Kiernan↳ R. Fallowfield

13'

M. Beck↳ R. Fallowfield

19'

Callum Burton

20'

B. KiernanPenalty

26'

W. Hoolahan↳ J. Ironside

29'

L. Hannant↳ J. Ironside

32'

B. Kiernan

46'

H. Dunk← J. Iredale

46'

J. Okedina← D. Drysdale

58'

P. Mullin↳ W. Hoolahan

67'

W. Burrell← M. Roberts

73'

Jay Williams

74'

P. MullinPenalty

76'

83'

84'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateCambridge

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots21

3Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots21

9On Target11

2Off Target6

6Blocked4

12Inside Box18

5Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

455Total Passes413

303Accurate Passes278

67%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1