Cambridge United 2–1 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Harrogate Town

W. Hoolahan 81'

J. Ironside 71'

J. Muldoon 10'

1/9/2021

League Two · Round 23Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cambridge United64%

×Draw20%

Harrogate Town16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.93

Cambridge United

2.08

Harrogate Town

0.93

Cambridge United creates 124% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

1.13

0.73

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.80

Harrogate Town

1.13

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.73

Harrogate Town

2.35

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.56scores more

Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

84%

Cambridge United or Harrogate Town

80%

Draw or Harrogate Town

36%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

40%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

87%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

61%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

34%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

61%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

24%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

80%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.80 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.08

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cambridge United scores more

64%

level

20%

Harrogate Town scores more

16%

Cambridge United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

W. Hoolahan

Cambridge United · M

9.5

Match Events

10'

J. Muldoon↳ J. March

34'

Josh March

47'

Mitchell Roberts

54'

J. Williams← M. Roberts

64'

Harry Darling

65'

J. Falkingham← E. Francis

65'

L. Kerry← C. Kirby

67'

Lloyd Kerry

67'

J. Ironside← H. Knibbs

71'

J. Ironside↳ W. Hoolahan

73'

78'

79'

81'

82'

W. Hondermarck← J. McPake

82'

J. Stead← J. March

90'

Harrison Dunk

90'

Joe Ironside

90+3'

L. Davies← W. Hoolahan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeHarrogate

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots7

8Corners1

9Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots7

4On Target3

6Off Target3

8Blocked1

7Inside Box3

11Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

574Total Passes272

442Accurate Passes169

77%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0