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Harare City vs Bulawayo City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Harare City
Harare City
FT
1 – 0
Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
3/24/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Rufaro Stadium (Harare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Harare City46%
×Draw31%
Bulawayo City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harare City
1.14
Bulawayo City
0.70

Harare City creates 63% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 25 away

creates per match

Harare City
0.95
Bulawayo City
0.52

allows per match

Harare City
0.88
Bulawayo City
1.32

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par
Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Bulawayo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Harare City or draw
77%
Harare City or Bulawayo City
69%
Draw or Bulawayo City
54%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+
20%
Bulawayo City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals
68%
Harare City 2+ goals
32%
Harare City 3+ goals
11%
Bulawayo City 1+ goals
50%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
16%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)
67%
Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Bulawayo City away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.95 + Bulawayo City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bulawayo City attack 0.52 + Harare City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Harare City scores more
46%
level
31%
Bulawayo City scores more
23%

Harare City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Harare City 1 – 0 Bulawayo City

Harare City beat Bulawayo City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium (Harare).