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Bulawayo City vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Bulawayo City
Bulawayo City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Harare City
Harare City
11/5/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 33Barbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bulawayo City35%
×Draw30%
Harare City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulawayo City
1.03
Harare City
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bulawayo City
0.88
Harare City
0.79

allows per match

Bulawayo City
1.24
Harare City
1.18

finishing

Bulawayo City+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo City ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bulawayo City or draw
65%
Bulawayo City or Harare City
70%
Draw or Harare City
65%

Winning margin

Bulawayo City wins by 2+
13%
Harare City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bulawayo City 1+ goals
64%
Bulawayo City 2+ goals
28%
Bulawayo City 3+ goals
9%
Harare City 1+ goals
64%
Harare City 2+ goals
27%
Harare City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)
50%
Harare City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo City at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo City attack 0.88 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Harare City attack 0.79 + Bulawayo City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bulawayo City scores more
35%
level
30%
Harare City scores more
35%

Bulawayo City at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bulawayo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bulawayo City 1–2 Harare City

Harare City beat Bulawayo City 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.