Bulawayo City 1–1 Harare City: Result & Stats

Bulawayo City

FT

1 – 1

Harare City

7/14/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 19Barbourfields Stadium (Bulawayo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bulawayo City32%

×Draw31%

Harare City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulawayo CityExpected goals in this matchHarare City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.04

Bulawayo City

0.96

Harare City

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

0.73

creates per match

0.85

1.23

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bulawayo City

0.73

Harare City

0.85

allows per match

Bulawayo City

1.23

Harare City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulawayo City+0.00on par

Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo City ↓

Harare City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bulawayo City or draw

63%

Bulawayo City or Harare City

69%

Draw or Harare City

68%

Winning margin

Bulawayo City wins by 2+

12%

Harare City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bulawayo City 1+ goals

62%

Bulawayo City 2+ goals

25%

Bulawayo City 3+ goals

7%

Harare City 1+ goals

65%

Harare City 2+ goals

28%

Harare City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo City (draw refunded)

47%

Harare City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo City at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo City attack 0.73 + Harare City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Harare City attack 0.85 + Bulawayo City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bulawayo City scores more

32%

level

31%

Harare City scores more

37%

Harare City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff