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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Hapoel Afula — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
1/10/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundYankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon73%
×Draw15%
Hapoel Afula11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2.69
Hapoel Afula
0.97

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon creates 177% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
3.20
Hapoel Afula
1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
0.60
Hapoel Afula
2.17

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
89%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Hapoel Afula
85%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
27%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
52%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
93%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
74%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
49%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
62%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
25%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
87%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 3.20 + Hapoel Afula defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.69

Hapoel Afula attack 1.33 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
73%
level
15%
Hapoel Afula scores more
11%

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 7–0 Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Hapoel Afula 7-0 in State Cup on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Yankele Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.