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Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2/17/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 24Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Hapoel Afula39%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Afula
1.35
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 111 away

creates per match

Hapoel Afula
1.21
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.21

allows per match

Hapoel Afula
1.27
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.49

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw
66%
Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
74%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
71%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
35%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
53%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.49 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.21 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more
39%
level
26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
34%

Hapoel Afula at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Hapoel Afula beat Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 17, 2025.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.