Hapoel Petah Tikva 6–0 Bnei Yehuda: Result & Stats

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bnei Yehuda

5/8/2023

Liga Leumit · Promotion Group - 6HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva44%

×Draw26%

Bnei Yehuda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchBnei Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.42

Bnei Yehuda

1.11

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 28% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 94 away

1.46

creates per match

1.32

0.90

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.46

Bnei Yehuda

1.32

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

0.90

Bnei Yehuda

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Bnei Yehuda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

71%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Bnei Yehuda

74%

Draw or Bnei Yehuda

56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

21%

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

76%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

17%

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

67%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

30%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

60%

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.46 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

44%

level

26%

Bnei Yehuda scores more

29%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff