Bnei Yehuda 1–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva: Result & Stats

Bnei Yehuda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hapoel Petah Tikva

2/17/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 24Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Bnei Yehuda36%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Petah Tikva37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bnei YehudaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Bnei Yehuda

1.25

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 75 away

1.47

creates per match

1.27

1.26

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda

1.47

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.27

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda

1.26

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw

63%

Bnei Yehuda or Hapoel Petah Tikva

73%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

64%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

16%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

71%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

36%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

13%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

49%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.47 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.27 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more

36%

level

27%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

37%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff