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Bnei Yehuda vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — State Cup 2019

Bnei Yehuda
Bnei Yehuda
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikvaadvanced
2/29/2024State CupState Cup · Round of 16Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bnei Yehuda22%
×Draw21%
Hapoel Petah Tikva57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Yehuda
1.25
Hapoel Petah Tikva
2.10

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
3.00

allows per match

Bnei Yehuda
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.50

finishing

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par
Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Yehuda ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bnei Yehuda or draw
43%
Bnei Yehuda or Hapoel Petah Tikva
79%
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva
78%

Winning margin

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+
9%
Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals
71%
Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals
36%
Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
88%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
62%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)
28%
Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Yehuda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.00 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 3.00 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bnei Yehuda scores more
22%
level
21%
Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
57%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Bnei Yehuda 0–4 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Bnei Yehuda 4-0 in State Cup on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.