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Hapoel Kfar Kana vs Hapoel Beit Shean — League #496 2026

Hapoel Kfar Kana
Hapoel Kfar Kana
CANC
10:00
Hapoel Beit Shean
Hapoel Beit Shean
4/1/2025League #496League #496 · North - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana31%
×Draw23%
Hapoel Beit Shean46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.45
Hapoel Beit Shean
1.81

Hapoel Beit Shean creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.29
Hapoel Beit Shean
2.00

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.62
Hapoel Beit Shean
1.60

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par
Hapoel Beit Shean+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Kana ↓

Hapoel Beit Shean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Kana or draw
54%
Hapoel Kfar Kana or Hapoel Beit Shean
77%
Draw or Hapoel Beit Shean
69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+
14%
Hapoel Beit Shean wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals
77%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals
18%
Hapoel Beit Shean 1+ goals
84%
Hapoel Beit Shean 2+ goals
54%
Hapoel Beit Shean 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)
40%
Hapoel Beit Shean (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Kana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Hapoel Beit Shean away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.29 + Hapoel Beit Shean defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hapoel Beit Shean attack 2.00 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more
31%
level
23%
Hapoel Beit Shean scores more
46%

Hapoel Beit Shean at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hapoel Beit Shean will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hapoel Kfar Kana host Hapoel Beit Shean

April 1, 2025: Hapoel Kfar Kana take on Hapoel Beit Shean in League #496. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.