Hapoel Beit Shean 2–1 Hapoel Kfar Kana

Hapoel Beit Shean

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1/7/2025

League #496 · North - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Beit Shean49%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Kfar Kana25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beit SheanExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Kana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.96

Hapoel Beit Shean

1.48

Hapoel Kfar Kana

0.96

Hapoel Beit Shean creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hapoel Beit Shean

1.25

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.17

allows per match

Hapoel Beit Shean

0.75

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beit Shean+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beit Shean ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Beit Shean or draw

75%

Hapoel Beit Shean or Hapoel Kfar Kana

74%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana

51%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beit Shean wins by 2+

25%

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hapoel Beit Shean 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Beit Shean 2+ goals

43%

Hapoel Beit Shean 3+ goals

19%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

62%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

25%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beit Shean (draw refunded)

67%

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beit Shean at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beit Shean attack 1.25 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.17 + Hapoel Beit Shean defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Beit Shean scores more

49%

level

26%

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

25%

Hapoel Beit Shean at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hapoel Beit Shean will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff