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Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Kfar Kana — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Beit Shean
Hapoel Beit Shean
FT
1 – 0
Hapoel Kfar Kana
Hapoel Kfar Kana
8/30/2024State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Beit-She'an Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Beit Shean65%
×Draw19%
Hapoel Kfar Kana17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beit Shean
2.38
Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.13

Hapoel Beit Shean creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beit Shean
3.00
Hapoel Kfar Kana
0.75

allows per match

Hapoel Beit Shean
1.50
Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.75

finishing

Hapoel Beit Shean+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beit Shean ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hapoel Beit Shean or draw
83%
Hapoel Beit Shean or Hapoel Kfar Kana
81%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana
35%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beit Shean wins by 2+
42%
Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hapoel Beit Shean 1+ goals
91%
Hapoel Beit Shean 2+ goals
68%
Hapoel Beit Shean 3+ goals
42%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals
31%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beit Shean (draw refunded)
79%
Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beit Shean at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beit Shean attack 3.00 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 0.75 + Hapoel Beit Shean defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hapoel Beit Shean scores more
65%
level
19%
Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more
17%

Hapoel Beit Shean at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hapoel Beit Shean will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Beit Shean 1–0 Hapoel Kfar Kana

Hapoel Beit Shean beat Hapoel Kfar Kana 1-0 in State Cup on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Beit-She'an Municipal Stadium in Beit She'an.