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Hapoel Herzliya vs Agudat Sport Ashdod — League #496 2026

Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
R. Kuznetsov 40'
1/16/2024League #496League #496 · South - 10National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Herzliya32%
×Draw27%
Agudat Sport Ashdod41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Herzliya
1.11
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.30

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hapoel Herzliya
0.83
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Herzliya
1.33
Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.40

finishing

Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par
Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Herzliya ↓

Agudat Sport Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Herzliya or draw
59%
Hapoel Herzliya or Agudat Sport Ashdod
73%
Draw or Agudat Sport Ashdod
68%

Winning margin

Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+
13%
Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals
67%
Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals
30%
Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals
10%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
73%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
37%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)
44%
Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Herzliya at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Herzliya attack 0.83 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.27 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Herzliya scores more
32%
level
27%
Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
41%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
B. Moshel
26'
Y. Lerman
40'
R. Kuznetsov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Herzliya vs Agudat Sport Ashdod

Hapoel Herzliya beat Agudat Sport Ashdod 1-0 in League #496 on January 16, 2024.

Goals: R. Kuznetsov (40').

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.