Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Hapoel Herzliya — League #496 2026

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya
Unknown 90+6', 90+2'
4/8/2025League #496League #496 · South - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod37%
×Draw31%
Hapoel Herzliya32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.02
Hapoel Herzliya
0.93

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.23
Hapoel Herzliya
1.00

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.85
Hapoel Herzliya
0.80

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
68%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Hapoel Herzliya
69%
Draw or Hapoel Herzliya
63%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
14%
Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
64%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
27%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
8%
Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals
61%
Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals
24%
Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
53%
Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Hapoel Herzliya away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.23 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Hapoel Herzliya attack 1.00 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
37%
level
31%
Hapoel Herzliya scores more
32%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
90+2'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Agudat Sport Ashdod 2–0 Hapoel Herzliya

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Hapoel Herzliya 2-0 in League #496 on April 8, 2025.

Goals: ? (90+2', 90+6').