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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Hapoel Herzliya — State Cup 2019

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
FT
1 – 0
Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya
8/30/2024State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod46%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Herzliya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.60
Hapoel Herzliya
1.21

Agudat Sport Ashdod creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.50
Hapoel Herzliya
1.43

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.00
Hapoel Herzliya
1.71

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Hapoel Herzliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
71%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Hapoel Herzliya
75%
Draw or Hapoel Herzliya
54%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
24%
Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
80%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
47%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
22%
Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
62%
Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Hapoel Herzliya away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.50 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hapoel Herzliya attack 1.43 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
46%
level
25%
Hapoel Herzliya scores more
29%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Agudat Sport Ashdod 1–0 Hapoel Herzliya

Agudat Sport Ashdod beat Hapoel Herzliya 1-0 in State Cup on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.