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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Hadera — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Shevaadvanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
1/15/2025State CupState Cup · Round of 16Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva78%
×Draw16%
Hapoel Hadera7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.32
Hapoel Hadera
0.53

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 338% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.89
Hapoel Hadera
0.50

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.56
Hapoel Hadera
2.75

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
93%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Hapoel Hadera
84%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
22%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
54%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
90%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
67%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
40%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
41%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
10%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
92%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.89 + Hapoel Hadera defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.32

Hapoel Hadera attack 0.50 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
78%
level
16%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
7%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Beer Sheva 6–0 Hapoel Hadera

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Hapoel Hadera 6-0 in State Cup on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.