Hapoel Beer Sheva 3–0 Hapoel Hadera: Result & Stats

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Hadera

8/26/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 1Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva52%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Hadera23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Hadera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.61

Hapoel Hadera

0.97

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 66% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 97 away

1.92

creates per match

1.03

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.92

Hapoel Hadera

1.03

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.90

Hapoel Hadera

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Hapoel Hadera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

77%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Hapoel Hadera

75%

Draw or Hapoel Hadera

48%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

28%

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

80%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

48%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

22%

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

62%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

25%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

70%

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

52%

level

25%

Hapoel Hadera scores more

23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff